Analysts Forecast $100 Oil Next Year as US-Iran War Disrupts Supply and Fuels Global Inflation

Oil market participants are increasingly converging on a view that crude will trade near $100 a barrel next year as the US-Iran war continues to remove supply from the market and force demand to slow, according to Bloomberg reports published this week. The outlook marks a sharp shift from earlier expectations of easing prices and underscores how the conflict is reshaping energy, inflation and financial markets far beyond the Middle East.

The latest trading has been volatile. Oil edged higher after plunging on Wednesday, with prices swinging on comments from President Donald Trump that the US was in the “final stages” of talks with Iran, even as both sides kept trading threats of further escalation. At the same time, a separate Bloomberg report said crude was being priced by many market participants as likely to stay capped close to $100 over the next year, reflecting the balance between reduced supply and a slowdown in consumption.

The conflict’s effects are already showing up in national economies. Bloomberg Economics reported that South African annual inflation climbed to a 20-month high in April, driven by sharp increases in domestic fuel prices linked to the war. In Nigeria, policymakers kept interest rates unchanged and said they expect the inflation shock from higher energy and food costs to be temporary, suggesting some central banks still see the price spike as a passing effect rather than a lasting shift.

But other signs point to broader and more persistent damage. Bloomberg said the blockage in the Strait of Hormuz is nearing the three-month mark, and that the economic pain from disrupted shipping and higher energy costs may only be undone by a slowdown in growth. In Asia, the war is also pressuring currencies and bond markets, with Bloomberg reporting that some moves are approaching levels once considered unlikely, a warning that investors are pricing in a prolonged disruption.

The strain is reaching corporate and investment plans as well. Reliance Industries’ effort to list its digital arm, Jio Platforms, in what could be India’s biggest-ever IPO is facing fresh hurdles worsened by the war’s impact, Bloomberg reported. In commodity markets more broadly, copper and other base metals have been unstable as traders weigh the possibility of peace talks against the risk of renewed escalation. Together, the reports suggest that even if diplomacy gains traction, the conflict has already altered the path of prices, growth and capital markets in ways that may take months to unwind.