DOJ Indicts Army Master Sgt. for $400K Polymarket Insider Trading on Classified Maduro Raid

U.S. Army Master Sgt. Gannon Ken Van Dyke, a 38-year-old special forces soldier stationed at Fort Bragg, North Carolina, has been arrested and indicted for allegedly using classified information about a military raid to capture Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro to win over $400,000 on the prediction market platform Polymarket. The Department of Justice announced the charges on Thursday, marking the first time the Commodity Futures Trading Commission has accused someone of insider trading on event contracts. Federal prosecutors in New York detailed how Van Dyke, involved in the planning and execution of "Operation Absolute Resolve" starting December 8, 2025, placed bets totaling more than $33,000 just before U.S. forces seized Maduro in Caracas on January 3, 2026.

According to the indictment, Van Dyke signed nondisclosure agreements vowing not to reveal any classified or sensitive information related to the operation. Despite this, he reportedly created a Polymarket account on December 26, 2025, transferred $35,000 from his personal bank account to a cryptocurrency exchange, and made around 13 bets on markets tied to Maduro's removal from power and potential U.S. military actions in Venezuela by January 31, 2026. The largest wager—a $32,537 bet that Maduro would be out of office by month's end—yielded a staggering 1,242% profit of $404,222, as reported by Polymarket data cited in federal filings. Additional bets included $1,000 on a U.S. invasion, $250 on President Trump invoking the War Powers Act, and $146 on U.S. forces landing in Venezuela.

The soldier faces five counts, including violations of the Commodity Exchange Act, commodities fraud, wire fraud, unlawful use of confidential government information for personal gain, and theft of non-public government information. Prosecutors allege he moved most of his winnings to a foreign cryptocurrency wallet before transferring them to a new online brokerage account. As noted by the FBI's James Barnacle, Van Dyke "earned over $400,000 by wagering on various scenarios related to Venezuela after gaining knowledge of the operation due to his position."

This case highlights rising concerns over insider trading on prediction markets like Polymarket, which allow bets on real-world events using cryptocurrency and have surged in popularity amid geopolitical tensions. President Trump commented that the world has "become a casino," pointing to the blending of classified intelligence with public betting platforms, according to ABC News. The Trump family itself has ties to such markets, adding a layer of irony to the political discourse.

Van Dyke's arrest affects not only him but also underscores vulnerabilities in military information security, especially for elite special forces units handling high-stakes operations. It raises questions about oversight of personnel with access to sensitive intel in an era of accessible crypto betting. Those impacted include the U.S. Army, which must now address internal protocols, and Polymarket users who rely on fair odds without insider edges.

Looking ahead, Van Dyke is expected to appear in court in the Southern District of New York, where the case could set precedents for regulating prediction markets and prosecuting service members for financial misconduct. The Justice Department and CFTC investigations continue, potentially uncovering more details on how the bets were traced through blockchain transactions. Military officials have confirmed cooperation with federal probes, emphasizing zero tolerance for breaching trust in national security operations.