Goldman Sachs Forecasts 11% Global Equity Returns and Robust 2026 Economic Growth

Goldman Sachs Research economists are projecting robust global economic growth in 2026, with 11% returns forecast for global equities over the next 12 months as earnings growth and continued economic expansion drive market performance. The bank expects global real GDP to increase 2.9% this year, exceeding the consensus estimate of 2.7%, with particularly strong performance anticipated from the United States, which is projected to grow at 2.6% versus the consensus forecast of 2.0%.

The U.S. economic outperformance is expected to be driven by reduced tariff drag, tax cuts, and easier financial conditions. Additionally, Goldman Sachs Research anticipates that inflation in the United States will continue declining, with core personal consumption expenditures inflation falling from 3% in 2025 to 2.2% by December 2026 as the impact of tariffs fades. This combination of factors is creating favorable conditions for both economic growth and equity market expansion.

Within the equity market, Goldman Sachs has identified 15 high-upside stocks positioned to benefit from secular growth trends—earnings growth independent of broader economic cycles. The bank's research highlighted companies like Micron Technology (expected 230% sales growth), Broadcom (74%), Nvidia (71%), and Meta Platforms (25%) as among the top candidates. Analyst Ben Snider noted that "secular growth stocks" are poised for a comeback, with the bank employing its Rule of 10 stock-screening criteria to identify companies meeting specific growth benchmarks.

Emerging markets are anticipated to deliver particularly strong earnings growth, driven by countries like India and China. Meanwhile, other major global economies are also expected to experience steady growth in 2026. Japan is projected to achieve 0.6% real GDP growth, while China's real GDP is forecast at 4.8%, above the consensus estimate of 4.6%.

The optimistic outlook reflects Goldman Sachs' broader assessment that the global bull market will likely continue throughout 2026, although equity gains are not expected to match the dramatic advances of 2025. The combination of earnings growth, economic expansion, and declining inflation provides the foundation for this favorable investment environment.