Goldman Sachs sees $120 oil risk if shipping attacks worsen

Goldman Sachs has put a $120-a-barrel scenario back on traders’ radar, but only if attacks on shipping in the Middle East grow more frequent or severe. The logic is simple: a sustained threat to tankers can slow or interrupt the route from producers to buyers, tightening the supply available to the market even if oil remains in the ground. With Brent near $97, the bank’s range also runs the other way: it sees a possible drop toward $80 if Gulf exports recover to two-thirds of their prewar level. Its recommendation to favor natural gas and diesel positions is therefore less a declaration that $120 is coming than a hedge against a shipping disruption that could quickly spread through energy markets.