Iran war jet fuel prices force airlines to cancel thousands of flights and raise airfares

Jet fuel prices have more than doubled in recent weeks due to the ongoing war in Iran and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, forcing airlines worldwide to cancel thousands of flights, trim schedules, and raise ticket prices. International Air Transport Association (IATA) Director General Willie Walsh stated from the sidelines of the IATA World Data Symposium in Singapore that these elevated jet fuel costs are expected to persist for some time, making higher airfares inevitable as carriers pass on the burden.^[1][3]

The crisis stems from disrupted fuel shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, through which about a third of the world's aviation fuel passes, leading to shortages and prices exceeding $170 per barrel in some regions. According to Bloomberg, Walsh highlighted the prolonged nature of this spike, while BBC reports note airlines reducing services amid the Iran conflict's toll on supplies. Aviation analytics firm Cirium recorded over 7,000 global flight cancellations on a single recent Monday—nearly 7% of the schedule—with North American rates hitting 14.6%.^[1]

Major carriers are responding aggressively to preserve cash and profitability. United Airlines announced a 5% cut in planned flights on less profitable routes, with CEO Scott Kirby warning of an extra $11 billion in annual fuel expenses if prices hold. Internationally, Scandinavian Airlines canceled around 1,000 flights in April, Air New Zealand axed 1,100 through early May, and airlines in Vietnam, Thailand, Sri Lanka, Myanmar, and elsewhere have grounded domestic and regional services due to acute shortages in Asia and Oceania.^[1][2][3] WestJet scaled back by 1% in April and 3% in May, consolidating on lower-demand routes.^[4]

Passengers are bearing the brunt through surging fares and new fees. Carriers in Asia and the Pacific have added fuel surcharges of 10% to over 30%, explicitly tied to the Iran war's impact, while CEOs indicate airfares could rise by up to 30% overall. Low-cost operators with thinner margins face the greatest strain, despite some hedging, prompting shifts to shorter, more efficient routes and reviews of summer schedules.^[2][3][4]

This upheaval threatens the airline industry's outlook, with IATA's pre-conflict forecast of $41 billion in 2026 net profits now in jeopardy amid higher costs and potential demand drops from elevated gasoline prices and economic uncertainty. Regions like Africa and Latin America report import price hikes over 70%, exacerbating issues for domestic carriers.^[1][2]

Travelers are advised to monitor airline updates closely, as last-minute cancellations due to local fuel shortages remain a risk, particularly in Asia. Experts recommend travel insurance covering interruptions, flexibility with dates and routes, and avoiding tight connections amid ongoing schedule volatility.^[1][4] While some airlines prioritize cash preservation, the duration of the Iran war will determine if disruptions ease or intensify further.