Novak Warns Oil Demand Needs 'Radical Revision' as OPEC Forecasts Strong Growth

Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said on Thursday that the outlook for global oil demand is becoming increasingly uncertain and that current estimates may need a “radical revision,” according to Asharq Al-Awsat. His comments came at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum and directly contrasted with remarks from OPEC Secretary General Haitham Al Ghais, who said the cartel still expects strong growth in oil demand.

The competing messages highlight a broader split over where the oil market is headed. Novak’s warning reflects growing concern that demand assumptions may be too optimistic, while OPEC continues to argue that consumption will remain robust. That difference matters because demand forecasts help shape production plans, investment decisions and price expectations across the energy industry.

Recent market forecasts have already shown some softening in demand expectations. The World Bank has said global oil demand growth is losing momentum, with growth in 2025 expected to slow to about 1 million barrels per day from 2 million barrels per day in 2023. The U.S. Energy Information Administration has also cut its own outlook, saying it now expects global oil demand to rise by just 0.2 million barrels per day in 2026, down sharply from earlier estimates.

The uncertainty comes as oil markets face a mix of competing forces. Supply remains strong, non-OPEC producers have expanded output, and analysts have pointed to weaker demand in major consuming countries such as China. At the same time, geopolitical tensions and policy changes continue to create volatility, making it harder to judge whether demand will hold up or falter further.

OPEC, however, has continued to defend a more bullish view. According to Asharq Al-Awsat, Al Ghais reiterated in St. Petersburg that the organization expects strong growth in oil demand. That stance suggests OPEC remains more confident than many other forecasters that global consumption will keep rising in the years ahead.

For producers, traders and governments, the stakes are high. If Novak’s warning proves correct, the industry may be entering a period in which long-standing demand models no longer fit the market, forcing a reassessment of investment plans, output strategy and revenue expectations.