Oil prices fall below $100 as Trump signals progress in Iran nuclear talks

Oil prices fell below $100 a barrel on Monday as the Trump administration signaled that talks with Iran were moving closer to a deal, easing fears of a wider disruption to global energy supplies. President Donald Trump said over the weekend that an agreement was “largely negotiated,” but stressed that it would “not be rushed” and was still subject to final approval. The prospect of reduced tension helped lift global stocks and emerging-market assets while weighing on the dollar, according to Bloomberg’s market coverage.

The central issue in the talks is the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway through which a large share of the world’s oil and gas shipments pass. Several reports said the emerging framework would involve reopening the strait and ending the U.S. naval blockade there, in exchange for Iranian steps on its nuclear program. A senior administration official told reporters that the two sides were working on a limited, two-step interim arrangement, under which Iran would agree in principle to dispose of its highly enriched uranium stockpile while the U.S. would move to lift the blockade. That official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said the focus was on a broad commitment first, with the details to be worked out later.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio said “significant progress” had been made in the discussions, though he cautioned that any deal would still require full Iranian acceptance and compliance. Rubio also said the administration had spent the past 48 hours working with Gulf regional partners on a framework aimed at keeping international waterways open and addressing concerns about Iran’s nuclear ambitions. Trump echoed that message in his own comments, saying the U.S. would not rush into an agreement and warning that Iran must never be allowed to obtain a nuclear weapon.

Iran has not publicly signed on to the proposal, and officials there have reportedly said important disagreements remain. Sources cited in the coverage said the unresolved questions include how to dispose of enriched uranium and how final security guarantees would be structured. Despite the uncertainty, the tone from Washington has been notably more upbeat over the past 24 hours, with Rubio saying there had been “significant progress,” and Trump suggesting the deal was close enough to be announced once it is finalized.

The market reaction has been immediate. Oil prices dropped sharply on expectations that a deal could restore some confidence in Middle East shipping routes and reduce the risk premium built into energy markets. Bloomberg reported that emerging-market stocks and currencies rose, gold moved higher as inflation worries eased, and global equities climbed toward record levels. Even a supertanker carrying Iraqi crude reportedly crossed the blockade line and left the Persian Gulf as the talks advanced, underscoring how closely traders are watching the Strait of Hormuz.

The outcome matters far beyond the U.S. and Iran. Any agreement that reduces the risk of conflict and keeps the strait open would likely ease pressure on fuel prices, shipping costs and broader inflation, which has been sensitive to energy shocks. But the talks remain unfinished, and both Trump and Rubio have indicated that Washington is prepared to walk away if Iran does not accept terms that satisfy U.S. demands on nuclear restrictions. For now, the message from both sides is that progress is real, but a final deal is still not in hand.