Oil prices stabilize as stalled US-Iran talks fuel Strait of Hormuz supply fears

Oil prices held steady in early trading on Tuesday after sharp gains in the previous session, as markets weighed uncertainty over U.S.-Iranian talks and the future of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical route for global energy shipments. The pause followed Monday’s rally, when crude rose more than 5% amid worsening tensions and signs that diplomacy remained fragile.

According to reporting from Reuters carried by Kitco, the dollar also stabilized as investors reassessed the odds of a quick deal between Washington and Tehran. Traders were reacting to Iran’s move to suspend message exchanges with the United States through mediators, a development that weakened hopes for an imminent breakthrough and revived concern that tensions could keep energy markets on edge.

The Strait of Hormuz remains central to the story because it is one of the world’s most important shipping lanes for oil and liquefied natural gas. As long as the risk of disruption persists, prices for crude and related assets are likely to stay sensitive to headlines, and analysts say inflation expectations could remain elevated if supply routes are threatened.

Monday’s jump in oil was driven by the latest escalation between the two sides and by worries that reduced diplomatic contact could make a settlement harder to reach. Reuters reported that investors had recently been betting on a possible agreement to reopen the strait, but that optimism faded after fresh military developments and statements suggesting negotiations may take longer than hoped.

The impact is not limited to crude. Asharq Al-Awsat reported that aluminum prices climbed to a more than four-year high as traders priced in broader supply risks tied to Middle East tensions. The dollar’s steadiness, meanwhile, reflected a market still looking for clearer signals on both the conflict and central bank policy, according to Reuters and Asharq Al-Awsat.

What happens next will depend largely on whether talks resume in a meaningful way and whether shipping through Hormuz can continue without disruption. Until there is clearer evidence of de-escalation, traders appear likely to keep a close watch on military developments, diplomatic messages, and any sign that energy flows in the region could be affected.