Polymarket Cuts Ties With George Santos Amid Federal Insider Trading Investigation
Polymarket has ended its paid relationship with George Santos as federal regulators investigate whether the former congressman used prediction markets to profit from trades tied to information he had before the public, according to reporting from The Independent and ABC News. The move comes amid a broader scrutiny of prediction markets after Kalshi flagged Santos’s wagers and referred the matter to regulators and the Justice Department.
According to ABC News, Kalshi reported Santos to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and federal prosecutors after its compliance team identified a series of wagers in February tied to whether he would attend President Donald Trump’s State of the Union address. Sources told ABC News that Santos bet he would not attend, then publicly posted that he would be “in the gallery” before later saying he ended up watching from an airport TV instead. Regulators are now reviewing whether he made money by misleading the public and affecting the odds.
The Independent reported that Polymarket has now cut ties with Santos while federal authorities examine possible insider trading concerns on rival prediction markets. The report said the decision ends a paid relationship with Santos as regulators probe whether his trading activity crossed legal lines. Polymarket’s move appears to reflect the growing pressure on prediction platforms to distance themselves from figures under investigation.
The case matters because prediction markets let users trade on the outcome of real-world events, from elections to policy speeches, and they can be vulnerable if participants know nonpublic information that could move prices. In this case, the concern is that Santos may have used advance knowledge of his own plans to place trades in a market where his actions could influence the result.
ABC News reported that the CFTC’s enforcement division is now investigating the matter and will decide whether Santos’s trades violated market rules. The report also said it is unclear whether the Justice Department has opened a criminal case, although federal prosecutors in New York have previously brought insider-trading cases involving Kalshi’s rival, Polymarket.
The developments put both Santos and the prediction market industry back under scrutiny. They also raise questions about how regulators will police markets that turn current events into tradable contracts, especially when the people being wagered on are themselves capable of moving the odds.