SRMED
Englishعربي
Englishعربي
Saudi Arabia’s economy revised its first-quarter 2026 growth forecast upward to 3%, surpassing the preliminary estimate of 2.8% and demonstrating resilient fundamentals despite escalating Middle East tensions that disrupted supply chains and shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Non-oil activities, which now constitute 55% of the economy, remained the primary growth driver with a 2.9% expansion, contributing 1.7 percentage points to overall GDP even as oil activity slowed to 2.9% from the previous quarter’s 10.8%. While the IMF lowered its 2026 forecast for Saudi Arabia to 2% due to regional instability, analysts and institutions have lifted near-term growth views, citing momentum improvements that point to stronger scenarios for 2027 as the Kingdom continues to withstand regional shocks. This economic performance affects Saudi businesses, workers, and investors by reinforcing confidence in Vision 2030 progress while highlighting vulnerabilities tied to global oil trade chokepoints. The upward revision reflects broader sectoral gains across oil, non-oil, and government activities, signaling that the war shock has transmitted primarily through oil rather than the wider domestic economy.