SRMED
Englishعربي
Englishعربي
The aviation and shipping industries face extended recovery timelines following disruptions in the Middle East, with different sectors projecting markedly different timeframes for normalization.
Shipping operations could resume more quickly than initially feared. Hapag-Lloyd, one of the world's largest container shipping companies, expressed cautious optimism on Wednesday regarding the resumption of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz following a two-week ceasefire agreement between the United States and Iran.[1] The company suggested that restoring normal shipping movements could take between 6 to 8 weeks, offering a relatively near-term outlook for maritime trade recovery.
However, aviation fuel supplies face a considerably longer recovery period. The International Air Transport Association (IATA) warned that restoring jet fuel supplies and prices to normal levels could take several months, even if the Strait of Hormuz reopens.[2][4] IATA Director General Willie Walsh emphasized that this recovery will not be swift, pointing to damage to refining infrastructure in the Middle East as a critical bottleneck.[2] The organization highlighted a fundamental difference between the current crisis and previous disruptions like the COVID-19 pandemic: this shortage stems from constrained supply rather than reduced demand.[2]
The refining infrastructure damage presents particular challenges for the aviation sector. Even with the waterway reopened, repair and reconstruction of damaged facilities will delay the return of adequate jet fuel production.[2][4] Additionally, IATA noted that the lost operational capacity of Gulf-based airlines cannot be fully compensated by other carriers, meaning global aviation constraints will persist longer than markets may anticipate.[2]
There is, however, a potential silver lining for fuel supplies. Current elevated refining margins are incentivizing refineries to increase jet fuel production, which could gradually help stabilize supplies in the coming period.[4] Despite stock market optimism driven by hopes of ceasefire and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, industry leaders caution that actual recovery will likely proceed more slowly than market sentiment suggests.[2]