Economy and macroUpdated November 3

Early counts have historically leaned Republican

Axios analyzed vote counts from AP and Edison Research and found a recurring pattern: in every national election since 2018, House and Senate votes counted by 9 p.m. Eastern were 4 to 9 percentage points more Republican than the final result. Geography explains much of the gap, Axios says: Florida and other right-leaning states tend to report quickly. By 11 p.m., more House races had been called for Republicans than Democrats in all four elections examined, including 2018 and 2020, when Democrats won the House. Axios cautions that early leads aren't necessarily predictive.

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Coverage started November 3