Global marketsUpdated November 5

The results raise a question about whether polling corrections overshot.

Pollsters went into the midterms with a recurring problem: they had underestimated Trump’s support in three consecutive presidential elections. Some tried to account for Republican voters who might be missing from surveys by weighting results according to party affiliation or past votes; a Pew analysis found nearly 70% of national polls used political weighting in 2024. Before the election, The Washington Post warned that a drop in turnout among Trump voters could make polls calibrated to the 2024 electorate underestimate Democrats. The results leave pollsters with a difficult question: did efforts to correct old misses contribute to a new one as the electorate shifted?

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Coverage started November 4