Saudi Arabia forecasts 12.8% growth in 2027 after oil-led 2026 contraction

Saudi Arabia’s Finance Ministry expects economic output, measured at current prices, to grow 12.8% in 2027, after a projected 3.6% contraction in 2026. The contrast is largely about oil: the ministry expects oil activity to drop 21.8% this year, while non-oil activity still grows 3.2%, cushioning the overall fall. That makes the 2027 figure a forecast of a strong rebound from an unusually weak oil year, rather than evidence that every part of the economy will suddenly expand at the same rate. The government also expects the budget deficit to narrow to 191 billion riyals, or 3.6% of GDP, from an estimated 245 billion riyals this year, even as it continues spending on development priorities.